Sometimes I wonder, am I contrarian or just crazy?
Well, you be the judge:
Idea viruses can quickly infect millions or even billions through our global “nervous system”. We’ve removed all mental firewalls due to:
- Frictionless worldwide Internet access
- Underregulation of FAANG companies
- Filter bubbles caused by algorithmic content recommendation
Bad actors can and do act on this.
Harmful idea viruses can cause more damage than traditional weapons and should be considered “weapons of mass economic destruction”. Examples include:
In some cases, destruction of outdated systems allows better systems to thrive.
Learning new things means stacking them on top of old knowledge. They will only stick if they fit on top of (or destroy) a previous layer.
This means some information is not accessible to us yet. A book can seem like complete bullshit, but make total sense after rereading it a year later.
To learn, understand the terminology first.
The concept of intelligence is quickly becoming meaningless outside the context of the Internet.
“Grasping” > “remembering”
Our brain’s “hard drive” is externalised to the cloud. Lookup takes less time (grabbing smartphone vs going to library). This trend will continue and become more extreme.
Root memorisation is only needed in minimal amounts. We still need to store addresses (“where can I find this info”) and base layers (“1+1=2”)
Internet helps us stack high level concepts to create novel thoughts, analogous to programmers combining libraries and pieces of Stackoverflow code to quickly create complex apps (instead of writing low-level machine code).
Your information funnel will be decided for you if you don’t consciously create it.
The companies who best convert your attention to revenue win.
Changing your information funnel is the highest ROI action you can take right now. It only takes 1 hour but has severe effects even years down the line.
Most people’s information funnel is bad: Instagram, Facebook, Reddit, 9gag etc.
Everything in your pocket will eventually be replaced by your smartphone.
Your smartphone will eventually be replaced by an AR device with faster inputs and higher resolution outputs.
Typing will be a thing of the past in 20-25 years. Swiping is faster but still far from optimal. More likely: hand or eye gestures, speech or a direct connection to our brain (cfr Neuralink)
Google Glasses were too early. Taping screens to our eyes is the next natural step (whether lenses or physical screens). The tech is not there yet but will be soon.
Stories make up the modern world but are seldom true. However, the truth is in the eye of the beholder and stories that are repeated often enough become “true”.
Journalistic integrity is a thing of the past (except for a small minority). We’re doomed by ad based business models until we figure out micropayments.
Almost anything traditional media produces is lagging, wrong, or both. The reasons:
- It is virtually impossible to find cause and effect
- Most media gets their information from Twitter
- Sensation sells and has very little to do with truth
Positive nihilism. Nothing really matters but let’s try anyway.
By changing the world we’re accelerating the heat death of the universe by creating entropy.
We’re a firefly blinking once. Then we’re gone.
Creating new things is hard. At first there’s a dissonance because you want to create beautiful things, but what you create is garbage. You’ll get ridiculed and mocked. Create anyway.
Next up in “software is eating the world”: the financial industry, traditional banks and national banks will be disrupted by hard, sound money with a different monetary policy.
There will be a trillion dollar cryptocurrency within 3 years, likely Bitcoin.
“just speculation” arguments against Bitcoin are missing the point. Speculation is necessary for adoption.
Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycle will continue until its price becomes extremely stable.
The scaling problem will be solved either with trust-minimised institutions or by deferred settlement.
Time is undervalued by most people, while money is overvalued.
“The worst that can happen is that I’d have a backpack and a sleeping bag and I’d be eating oatmeal. and I’d be fine.”
Salaries are meaningless in absolute terms. They should always include a time aspect in the denominator.
Free will does not exist.
The fact that I believe this has a net negative impact on my psyche and on my ability to succeed in life.
I believe most people should believe in free will, even though it’s false.
Striving for absolute truth is not necessarily always the best course of action.
Remote work will become the default for most people. 9 to 5 will largely be a thing of the past.
People will be judged based on output rather than input.
Artificial neural networks will change the world. We are only at the start.
Embeddings and latent features are extremely interesting to study. They can capture information in ways that we can’t grasp, even now already.
People underestimate what generative adversarial networks will be capable of in the next 5 years. We will not be able to trust video as proof that something happened.
Drivers, telemarketers, receptionists and even lawyers will be replaced by AI within the next 20-30 years.
Our attention span is largely gone. Most people are unable to focus and can’t deliver meaningful work.
Most of us have no choice to consume instead of create.
It’s going to be interesting to see whether being raised by a smartphone will solve this problem or make it worse.
We are causing climate change.
We will solve climate change with technology.
There is no distinction between us and “nature”. We are nature.
Funny how for hundreds of thousands of years we’ve been trying to survive by killing other animals, while now we’re pretending that preserving other species has intrinsic value other than protecting our food chain.
Business is friendship.
Rational decisions do not exist. 99% of our decisions come from our subconsciousness. We rationalise after the fact, after the decision has been made.
There’s a very rich universe of thoughts and feelings that we do not directly have access to. Very rarely, some feelings bubble up from our subconsciousness, enough to recognise them (usually after a dream).
Either relax or work in flow. Don’t force it. Do try to get over initial resistance. Momentum is most important to get shit done.
It’s not your company, you don’t own any shares. Why are you talking in the “we” form about the company you work for? It’s just another story you believe in.
Function over form.
Caloric surplus + lifting = getting in shape
Caloric surplus + watching Netflix = getting fat
Capitalism is the best we currently have, but it’s far from perfect.
We get depressed because we try to fight strong forces specifically designed by companies with lots of money.
Social media is rotten to the core. Facebook should have never been allowed to buy Whatsapp and Instagram.
We are not built to be holed up in dark rooms watching others do fun stuff. We are not built to be alone without touch. We are not built to eat junkfood all day.
The filter bubble is real and it’s killing people. Youtube’s recommendation algorithm can send you down some pretty dark, depressing paths. Same for Reddit, Twitter etc.
Sometimes we just need to turn off our smartphone, go camping, eat real food, and exercise.
People born after 2000 will have an unhealthy relation with dating and porn.
Online dating will force evolution less towards gut, more towards wit.
Alarm clocks are evil and should be avoided at all cost.
Homelessness is almost never caused by physical or financial hardship but by mental hardship.
It will be weird to eat actual animals in 15-20 years time.
Once economic incentives align and plant or cell based meat becomes tasty enough, it will quickly change our eating habits.
A steak will be rich people’s food.
We don’t think enough about how caffeine changes our thinking.
We need to consciously decide whether we want to ingest it every day.
A lot of rumination/worrying stems from overconsumption of caffeine.
Digital nomadism will continue to grow. Laws will gradually adapt.
We probably live in a simulation. This has no impact on our daily lives.
We can easily upgrade young people’s mental software by adding a sceptical base layer. A think-for-yourself mentality (“first-principle thinking) guards against the most egregious conspiracy theories.